On January 14th, in the Qiangzhuang wheat field in Shilili Village, Shili Town, Lucheng District, Zhangzhou City, Anhui Province, a villager was displaying dried wheat seedlings.

Xinhuanet.com Jinan, January 24 issue: The rise in wheat prices under drought conditions is expected to prevent investment from speculating on the opportunity to speculate that “Southern Drought and North Drought” is testing the stability of the grain market in China. The long-standing drought in the main wheat producing areas in northern China has stimulated the nerves of the futures market from time to time, and the wheat futures prices have risen steadily, and the market has ushered in a rare bull market. Can the year of major drought maintain stable grain production? Can the drought this time be the driving force for pushing up the price of wheat? The reporter investigated this.

Wheat prices are expected to increase the spot wheat price higher than the government’s purchase price, futures wheat prices continue to consolidate, institutional investors have increased warehouses... Since the beginning of the new year, wheat as a basic food crop is becoming a “new darling” of investment, Various funds are sought after. The analysis of investment institutions believes that the continuous price of wheat in the bull market stems from the drought. Since October last year, the northern region, which produces more than 80% of the country's total food output, is experiencing constant levels of drought.

Zhengzhou Ale main 1109 contract jumped to a historical high of 2,785 yuan/ton. Everbright Futures said in a recent wheat futures weekly that “drinking wheat production and quality concerns have persisted and will continue to increase the price of wheat; domestic wheat lags behind the trend of international wheat and related products, demand substitution effect and Under the effect of planting substitution, it is more optimistic for the wheat in the later period."

Xinhua News Agency reporters recently went to Shandong, Henan, Anhui and other major wheat producing areas to find that autumn and winter continuous drought has aggravated people's concerns about rising food prices. They feared that the soaring food prices in North China caused a resurgence of grain prices two years ago. In Shandong Province, where drought has been most severe, the drought level has risen from 50 years to once every 60 years. The area affected by drought has accounted for more than half of the sown area, and 240,000 people have had difficulties in drinking water temporarily.

Different from the drought situation in previous years, China's grain market is relatively well-funded. In the case where the price of safe-haven products such as gold continues to fall, the speculative psychology in this market has become increasingly strong. “For food, which is almost no demand elasticity, once there are relevant catalysts, it is easy to form price increase expectations.” A well-known investment agency made such warning in the industry analysis report.

In addition, entering the peak season at the end of the lunar calendar, seasonal factors may also play a role in fueling the high price of wheat. Liu Qingli, director of the GF Development Research Center, believes that the next one or two months will be the peak season for consumption, which will inevitably drive up the price of wheat. It is recommended that investors do more to wheat and increase their positions.

Drought does not necessarily lead to a reduction in production Although the increase in food prices is expected to be strong, a survey by the reporter found that the current drought does not necessarily lead to food production cuts, and there is a lack of support for long-term grain prices. In addition, China's high food stocks, which have been maintained for many years, have also won strength for the stability of the food market.

According to meteorologists, the so-called “60-year-on-a-case” is only an expression of hydrology using “frequency” to reflect the degree of drought. It means that it occurs once every 60 years on average, and it does not occur only once in 60 years. According to Xiong Hongqi, director of the plantation management department of the Shandong Provincial Department of Agriculture, Shandong's “nine droughts in ten years” shows how production will depend on the climate development and disaster relief efforts of the city.

In the face of unprecedented drought, cadres and drought-responsive people have never had a "big bang." During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, many drought-prone areas have taken a number of key preventive measures in advance. According to Zhang Chaochao, director of the Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Shandong has already completed the task of eliminating dangers and reinforcements for 158 large and medium-sized reservoirs and 3,882 small reservoirs in advance in the province, and won the right to win the drought.

The news from Henan Province, which has been ranked first in the country for food production for many years, also shows that the drought is still within control. Henan Provincial Water Resources Department spokesman Yang Yitong said that currently, the available groundwater inventory in Henan Province is 10.5 billion cubic meters, and surface water is 6 billion cubic meters. These waters meet the province’s industrial and urban water use, and they start to marry in the early summer. Before grouting, it is still enough to pour two or three more times of water.

In the case of improved irrigation conditions, grain farmers have not been worried about excessive drought. Wang Xiyu, a peasant in Zaozhuang, who had set a record high of 789.9 kg per mu in China, said that the situation is better than when I took the “food king”. Although it is somewhat dry, it cannot be said that it will reduce production.

In addition, higher stocks are also ready to stabilize food prices. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s grain inventories account for more than 40% of consumption, which is far higher than the internationally recognized level of safety of 17% to 18%, and can fully guarantee the supply of domestic markets. Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the impact of weather on prices remains to be further observed. China's grain harvested for seven consecutive years, and there are abundant stocks, laying an important foundation for stabilizing prices in 2011.

It is necessary to prevent experts speculating on hot money and speculation that wheat prices are not prone to ups and downs as wheat supply and demand balances have not been severely damaged. However, it should be noted that under the “concept of drought”, it is easy for the market to see more mentality. It is necessary to be especially vigilant to artificially speculate on the price of wheat and avoid blindly watching the market.

Zhang Weiguo, director of the Institute of Economic Research of Shandong Academy of Social Sciences, said that for the strategic material of wheat, the country has always attached great importance and has rich experience in regulation and control. It will inevitably intervene in many aspects such as capital, projects, and markets, and will never let it go. Food prices rose.

Jiang Daming, governor of Shandong Province, has recently asked all localities to vigorously support the construction of key water conservancy projects and regional water networks this year, so as to “strongly integrate funds, improve supporting programs, and increase investment in water conservancy”. According to the relevant person in charge of the Shandong Provincial Department of Finance, it is initially estimated that the financial investment for water conservancy construction in Shandong Province this year will achieve a high growth rate of 29%. Up to now, Shandong Province has invested 50 million yuan to support drought relief. This part of the funds designed to protect farmers' lives and food production has been allocated and allocated to the frontline of drought relief as soon as possible.

Agricultural experts said that the drought that occurred during the winter wheat growth phase had a limited impact on yield. At the same time, in addition to summer grains, there are autumn grains that can play an important stabilizing role in the total grain output. In addition, news from the capital side also exerted pressure on the suppression of rising food prices. The People's Bank of China announced that since January 20, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions has been raised by 0.5 percentage points, and the government’s determination to recover liquidity has been expected to increase food prices. Strong intervention.

However, it should be noted that, at the current stage of relatively abundant funds, it is particularly necessary to guard against hot money, especially foreign capital speculation. Many investment institutions are currently warning that in the current situation where the fundamental game is complicated, we must be cautious to see more, and we should not blindly chase high. "The government should strengthen the drought information and grain market information disclosure at this key node and resolutely eradicate the hot money speculation." Zhang Weiguo said.