The country's targeted sales through reserve grain will control the price of wheat within a reasonable range. The possibility of launching a price support mechanism is relatively small. The reporter learned from many parties in recent days that the purchase of summer grain in Jiangsu is gradually proceeding, and the grain price is under the national macro-control. Being in a stable state, it is unlikely that it will rise significantly.

Wheat prices have stabilized and weakened Recently, the State issued the “2011 Minimum Purchase Price Implementation Plan for Wheat”, and this year's market price is officially clarified: white wheat is 0.95 yuan per Jin, and red wheat and mixed wheat are RMB 0.93 per Jin. Compared to last year, the price of this year's trustee market has been raised by 0.05-0.07 yuan.

“The purchase price of wheat last year was 0.98 yuan, and it is unlikely that this year's rise will be up to 1 yuan.” Zhao Qingzhou, a large grain producer in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, told the China Economic Times that according to this situation, he is likely to grow grain this year.” break even".

“This year, the price of wheat will be relatively stable and weak in stability. This is mainly due to the role of the state’s macroeconomic regulation and control,” Han Feng, head of the Food and Drug Administration’s Department of Control in Jiangsu Province, said in an interview with this reporter. “The state has Sales will control the price of wheat within a reasonable range, and there will not be much change, and the possibility of starting the price mechanism is relatively small."

Han Feng said that this year's drought should have an impact on the summer harvest of autumn crops, but it will have limited impact on the acquisition of summer grains. He disclosed that due to the transformation of rapeseed in some areas of Jiangsu this year, the total wheat planting area has increased, so from the province's statistical results, this year's total wheat production has slightly increased.

Large planters "dismal operation"

In the information provided by the Jiangsu Provincial Agriculture Committee, Zhao Qingzhou of Qinglong Community in Nanjing Suihua Town is not only the largest grain producer in Nanjing reported, but also a “national grain modeller”. There are about 2,000 mu of land under his name. The basic realization of mechanized operations, including 1,500 acres of wheat, autumn grain will also have 800 acres of rice.

“From the beginning of August and September last year, precipitation began to decrease significantly. Afterwards, a few small rains were just wet and wet ground. Such light rain did not help the grain fields at all.” The reporter rushed to the degeneration where Zhao Qingzhou was located. In the town of Qinglong community, Suihua is ushering in a light rain. He pointed to the rain outside the house and told reporters.

“A minimum of one-third of the output reduction,” Zhao Qingzhou said, the average annual output of about seven hundred or eight hundred kilograms of per annum, this year, good yields of only five or six hundred kilograms per mu, the poorer plots only three or four hundred kilograms per mu. This year's drought will cause him greater economic losses, and rising costs have begun to cause his concern.

He calculated an account for the reporter: Machinery cost is about 200 yuan/mu, land rent is about 200 yuan/mu, chemical fertilizer is about 200 yuan/mu, wheat seed is about 100 yuan/mu, plus the labor cost for the busy season. Forty yuan, according to his previous estimation of the price of 1 yuan/kg of wheat, the grain revenue of the previous two or three hundred thousand yuan will shrink a lot this year, and even in this “wheat trade”, the growers may experience a deficit. ".

However, Zhao Qingzhou is still relatively optimistic. He believes that the market conditions for the planting industry as a whole are still promising, but this year it was almost.

Food processing situation is worrying. In the "Trend Chart of Jiangsu Province Grain and Oil Industry Growth Trends from 1949 to 2009" provided by the Jiangsu Provincial Grain Bureau, the reporter found that during the 50 years from 1949 to 1999, the grain processing capacity of Jiangsu Province was stable. With the growth trend, the total output value has been below 100 billion yuan. In the short span of 10 years from 2000 to 2009, the grain and oil processing industry in Jiangsu Province has achieved a noticeable and rapid growth, which has quadrupled, and by 2009, it is approaching. The 500 billion yuan mark.

At present, due to the excessive development, the wheat processing industry in Jiangsu Province has seen signs of overcapacity. “Flour processing industry is a low-profit industry with a profitability of less than 2%, mainly due to the expansion of scale.” Li Shanliang, director of the Industrial Development Department of the Grain Bureau of Jiangsu Province, told this reporter that in 2010, the annual output of wheat flour processing enterprises in Jiangsu Province totaled 7.982 million tons. According to the annual production capacity of 14.080 million tons, it can be calculated that the operating rate of Jiangsu wheat processing enterprises is about 80%.

At the same time, in recent years, some foreign-funded enterprises have begun to value the Jiangsu market and have settled in a strong position, which has brought potential threats to the grain processing industry in Jiangsu. It is understood that in the current wheat flour processing industry in Jiangsu Province, although the proportion of foreign investment is not very large, its “many soldier combat” capability is very strong. Li Shanliang said that as an example of a foreign-funded food processing company that will be put into production in Kunshan recently, its daily output will reach 2,000 tons. The entry of foreign companies will aggravate the demand of processing enterprises for raw grains and further increase the uncertainty of the steady development of the grain market.

Due to the fear of shortage of raw materials for production, grain processing companies such as flour mills have had buying activities several years ago. In the current context, will buying behavior be reproduced? Han Feng analysis said that this year is unlikely to appear buying behavior, "in the past few years due to buyouts caused the purchase price is too high, some companies have suffered losses, under the influence of the company's acquisition of a more rational and cautious approach, began to act. ”